The East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) in eastern DRC is under immense pressure to decisively deal with the Tutsi-led M23 rebel group that continues to capture vast swathes of the North Kivu Province in the eastern DRC province.
The EACRF, according to multiple sources, is “stuck” on the basis of some of the five East African Community (EAC) member countries having “selfish interests” in the restive eastern DRC. Rwanda has been singled out to support the M23, while Uganda which might have “leverage” over the former and has the capability to take on the M23 rebels is avoiding direct confrontation.
So far, Burundi, Kenya, and South Sudan have deployed armies under the EACRF to eastern DRC, one of the most volatile pockets on earth, while Tanzania— fence-sitters are “evaluating” the situation. Uganda is under immense pressure to deploy to North Kivu to buttress the Kenyan Defence Forces (KDF) currently stationed in Goma.
Largely a lame-duck force without much experience in asymmetrical warfare, the Kenyan force has not been able to halt the advancing M23 rebels.
Kenya, whose former President Uhuru Kenyatta is the facilitator of the EAC-led peace process, which does not share a border with DRC, was viewed a neutral arbiter and handed the overall role to coordinate the regional forces.
Highly placed sources told Daily Monitor that Nairobi is “highly” banking on the Kampala regime—Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) forces—for reinforcements in DRC, in case they get repulsed by the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group. The international community, sources added, is also banking on the UPDF, which is expected to deploy about 2,500 UPDF soldiers, to play a decisive role in plucking out the M23 guerillas.
On the other hand, the Kampala regime which has just “normalised” relations with Kigali early last year is circumspect of the implications of direct confrontation with M23, which Kigali says has a legitimate cause to protect the Tutsi community in North and South Kivu against an ethnic pogrom.
Kampala-Kigali relations thawed in April 2022 with the visit of President Paul Kagame to attend First Son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s 48th birthday at State House, Entebbe. Relations between the two countries deteriorated in mid-2017 and culminated in the border closure in February 2019.
Gen Kainerugaba has previously defended the M23 rebels. “As for M23, I think it is very, very dangerous for anybody to fight those brothers of ours. They are not terrorists. They are fighting for the rights of Tutsi in DRC.” His comments elicited a backlash among DRC politicians and civil society in Kinshasha who are against the deployment of the UPDF in the neighbouring country. In October 2022, Gen Muhoozi was dropped as Land Forces commander.
The problem at hand, multiple sources told Media, is mainly due to the “national interests” at stake in the DRC conflict that has so far left hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands displaced to neighbouring countries.
“To defeat M23 you need a strong army/armies on the ground. In the negotiating seat, you also need a leader who has leverage over presidents Kagame and Felix Tshisekedi, like in 1998 and in 2012 when they (M23) were first defeated,” a highly placed diplomatic source hinted.
The Washington-based Human Rights Watch detailed in a report late last year that the M23 has committed summary executions and forced recruitment of civilians while a 2018 UK government-backed report noted that the key challenge in resolving the M23 crisis is the ambiguity of the group’s character.
“Different readings of the M23’s origins, motivations and legitimacy led to significant confusion in determining the most appropriate response,” the UK government report noted.
Twenty-five years ago, following the ouster of the kleptocratic regime of Mobutu Sese Seko, the then Laurent Kabila regime under pressure from the Kampala-Kigali military alliance, called upon Southern African Development Community (SADC) nations to intervene. The ensuing war termed Africa’s ‘first World War’ sucked in nine nations.
